Our experiments show that Genfer is often faster than the existing exact inference tools PSI, Dice, and Prodigy.

While intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs) can use information from past students to personalize instruction, each new student is unique. Moreover, the education problem is inherently difficult because the learning process is only partially observable. We therefore develop a dynamic, time-series environment to simulate a classroom setting, with student-teacher interventions - including tutoring sessions, lectures, and exams. In particular, we design the simulated environment to allow for varying levels of probing interventions that can gather more information. Then, we develop reinforcement learning ITSs that combine learning the individual state of students while pulling from population information through the use of probing interventions. These interventions can reduce the difficulty of student estimation, but also introduce a cost-benefit decision to find a balance between probing enough to get accurate estimates and probing so often that it becomes disruptive to the student. We compare the efficacy of standard RL algorithms with several greedy rules-based heuristic approaches to find that they provide different solutions, but with similar results. We also highlight the difficulty of the problem with increasing levels of hidden information, and the boost that we get if we allow for probing interventions. We show the flexibility of both heuristic and RL policies with regards to changing student population distributions, finding that both are flexible, but RL policies struggle to help harder classes. Finally, we test different course structures with non-probing policies and we find that our policies are able to boost the performance of quiz and midterm structures more than we can in a finals-only structure, highlighting the benefit of having additional information.

In recent years, dynamic agent-based population models, which model every inhabitant of a country as a statistically representative agent, have been gaining in popularity for decision support. This is mainly due to their high degree of flexibility with respect to their area of application. GEPOC ABM is one of these models. Developed in 2015, it is now a well-established decision support tool and has been successfully applied for a wide range of population-level research questions ranging from health-care to logistics. At least in part, this success is attributable to continuous improvement and development of new methods. While some of these are very application- or implementation-specific, others can be well transferred to other population models. The focus of the present work lies on the presentation of three selected transferable innovations. We illustrate an innovative time-update concept for the individual agents, a co-simulation-inspired simulation strategy, and a strategy for accurate model parametrisation. We describe these methods in a reproducible manner, explain their advantages and provide ideas on how they can be transferred to other population models.

Advances in the control of autonomous systems have accompanied an expansion in the potential applications for autonomous robotic systems. The success of applications involving humans depends on the quality of interaction between the autonomous system and the human supervisor, which is particularly affected by the degree of trust that the supervisor places in the autonomous system. Absent from the literature are models of supervisor trust dynamics that can accommodate asymmetric responses to autonomous system performance and the intermittent nature of supervisor-autonomous system communication. This paper focuses on formulating an estimated model of supervisor trust that incorporates both of these features by employing a switched linear system structure with event-triggered sampling of the model input and output. Trust response data collected in a user study with 51 participants were then used identify parameters for a switched linear model-based observer of supervisor trust.

We study the problem of learning revenue-optimal multi-bidder auctions from samples when the samples of bidders' valuations can be adversarially corrupted

Adjusting visual parameters such as brightness and contrast is common in our everyday experiences. Finding the optimal parameter setting is challenging due to the large search space and the lack of an explicit objective function, leaving users to rely solely on their implicit preferences. Prior work has explored Preferential Bayesian Optimization (PBO) to address this challenge, involving users to iteratively select preferred designs from candidate sets. However, PBO often requires many rounds of preference comparisons, making it more suitable for designers than everyday end-users. We propose Meta-PO, a novel method that integrates PBO with meta-learning to improve sample efficiency. Specifically, Meta-PO infers prior users' preferences and stores them as models, which are leveraged to intelligently suggest design candidates for the new users, enabling faster convergence and more personalized results. An experimental evaluation of our method for appearance design tasks on 2D and 3D content showed that participants achieved satisfactory appearance in 5.86 iterations using Meta-PO when participants shared similar goals with a population (e.g., tuning for a ``warm'' look) and in 8 iterations even generalizes across divergent goals (e.g., from ``vintage'', ``warm'', to ``holiday''). Meta-PO makes personalized visual optimization more applicable to end-users through a generalizable, more efficient optimization conditioned on preferences, with the potential to scale interface personalization more broadly.

Many of society's most pressing challenges, from pandemic response to supply chain disruptions to climate adaptation, emerge from the collective behavior of millions of autonomous agents making decisions over time. Large Population Models (LPMs) offer an approach to understand these complex systems by simulating entire populations with realistic behaviors and interactions at unprecedented scale. LPMs extend traditional modeling approaches through three key innovations: computational methods that efficiently simulate millions of agents simultaneously, mathematical frameworks that learn from diverse real-world data streams, and privacy-preserving communication protocols that bridge virtual and physical environments. This allows researchers to observe how agent behavior aggregates into system-level outcomes and test interventions before real-world implementation. While current AI advances primarily focus on creating "digital humans" with sophisticated individual capabilities, LPMs develop "digital societies" where the richness of interactions reveals emergent phenomena. By bridging individual agent behavior and population-scale dynamics, LPMs offer a complementary path in AI research illuminating collective intelligence and providing testing grounds for policies and social innovations before real-world deployment. We discuss the technical foundations and some open problems here. LPMs are implemented by the AgentTorch framework (github.com/AgentTorch/AgentTorch)

The authors propose a method of estimating treatment effectiveness T(x) from a vector of patient features x. Treatment effectiveness is defined as (health outcome with treatment Yw) - (health outcome without treatment Y(1-w)). Presumably a health outcome might be something like survival time. If a patient survives 27 months with the treatment and only 9 without then the effectiveness T(x) would be 18 months? The authors estimate models of "outcome with treatment" and "outcome without treatment" jointly using RKHS kernel approximations on the whole dataset (I think there is a shared kernel). For a specific patient the effectiveness is based on the actual outcome of the patient which will be based on their features and their treatment condition minus the population model for the features of the opposite or counterfactual treatment condition.

Newly diagnosed Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) patients often struggle to obtain effective Blood Glucose (BG) prediction models due to the lack of sufficient BG data from Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM), presenting a significant "cold start" problem in patient care. Utilizing population models to address this challenge is a potential solution, but collecting patient data for training population models in a privacy-conscious manner is challenging, especially given that such data is often stored on personal devices. Considering the privacy protection and addressing the "cold start" problem in diabetes care, we propose "GluADFL", blood Glucose prediction by Asynchronous Decentralized Federated Learning. We compared GluADFL with eight baseline methods using four distinct T1D datasets, comprising 298 participants, which demonstrated its superior performance in accurately predicting BG levels for cross-patient analysis. Furthermore, patients' data might be stored and shared across various communication networks in GluADFL, ranging from highly interconnected (e.g., random, performs the best among others) to more structured topologies (e.g., cluster and ring), suitable for various social networks. The asynchronous training framework supports flexible participation. By adjusting the ratios of inactive participants, we found it remains stable if less than 70% are inactive. Our results confirm that GluADFL offers a practical, privacy-preserving solution for BG prediction in T1D, significantly enhancing the quality of diabetes management.